Earlier this week, the national economists declared victory over the Recession and went home. They said we can all breathe easier now, the enemy of the people is dead, hallelujah, peace on earth, 'n all that jazz. They added this footnote, "But don't expect the job market to improve for a whole lot o' years."
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www.sectormatic.com/signup.html For those of you counting your fiscal calories, it is worthy of note that the Dow Jones industrial average poked through the clouds yesterday and touched the 10,000 mark for the first time since October of 2008 when it was plunging out of control into the 4-digit range. The Dow closed up again today, buoyed above the 10K mark for a 2-day foray into the low 5-figures.
The Psychology of Uncle Scrooge
Why should this matter? What's the psychological barrier here? What's the financial return when the market cracks the ceiling? For one thing, economies are built on confidence. The consumer price index, for example, shows how much people are spending. If the country as a whole is timid, people put rat traps on their wallets and make Uncle Scrooge look like some prodigal son. Trepidation is what drove Black Monday in 1987 in a crash heard 'round the world, and The Great Depression of the '30s. Yet economic forecasts, job market predictions and Dow Jones aside, folks quickly forget how far we've come in a very short time. There is reason for optimism, and opportunities abound. Take a look at these numbers.
The first time the Dow Jones industrial average closed over 100 (that's no typo: One Hundred) was in 1906. That was at a time when Teddy Roosevelt was running the big show, horse thieves were hung by posse in the Old West, and women didn't have the right to vote. It took 66 years after that for the Dow Jones to close above 1,000. That historic day was November 14, 1972. By contrast, Dick Nixon held the national reins then, and women were burning their, uh...
undergarments on the Nightly News in defiance of cultural stricture - not to mention gravity. That's quite a span there to reach a tenfold financial return - 66 years of social progress. We had a couple o' world wars in there somewhere, not to mention the birth and ignoble death o' the Edsel.
Crimony, we went to the moon in that length of time. It took the Dow Jones 15 years to double from that point, reaching the 2,000 mark in early 1987. It doubled again, reaching 4,000 in February of '95 - that's 8 years - but it only took another 2-1/2 years to double one more time. The Dow Jones industrial average reached 8,000 in July of 1997.
Sitting Pretty in the Land Of 10K
The Dow hit 10,000 for the first time on March 29, 1999, once again offering a tenfold return, this time after 27 years - less than half of the previous duration for a similar yield. We're a bit shy these days of those lofty heights we saw in autumn of 2 years ago, when the Dow crested at 14,137 then promptly plunged into an illegitimate fliration with the 6K range in March of this year. Nobody wanted to see that ugly affair reach the light of day, and anybody with any cash left onhand started buyin' up the Street. Those with foresight are sittin' pretty today.
Let's hope it's you! Here we sit, poised on the brink of a new social frontier. The market's in a rally, and that ain't a bad way to be. There's a new guy in the White House, and a new idea about what's possible for folks of all types. I gotta tell ya, even with the pitches and rolls we've seen, I think it's safe to say that the overall trend is up.
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Until next time,
Jack Schmidt
Spokesman SectorMatic Money Site Everything for the Big Spender on a Budget